**Élodie Murphy-Gauthier of the Parti Québécois holds the clearest edge in trader pricing for the Laviolette–Saint-Maurice seat in the October 5, 2026 Quebec general election, followed by the Coalition Avenir Québec nominee.** The riding, an open seat after incumbent CAQ MNA Marie-Louise Tardif announced she would not seek re-election, features a tight provincial contest between the CAQ and PQ that has translated into a local toss-up. Murphy-Gauthier, a family physician with deep regional ties and long-standing PQ involvement, was confirmed as the PQ candidate in February 2026. Guy Veillette, a longtime local journalist and former political attaché, was named the CAQ standard-bearer in August. Projections from models such as 338Canada and Vote-Scope show the PQ narrowly ahead or essentially tied with the CAQ in the low-30s vote share, with smaller shares for the Conservatives, Liberals, and Québec solidaire. Traders appear to be pricing in the PQ’s momentum in the Mauricie region and the advantages of an open seat against the CAQ’s recent provincial standing. Other declared candidates, including Conservative Charles-Edouard Paquin and Liberal Laurent Bélisle, carry negligible implied probabilities consistent with their projected support levels. Resolution hinges on the official results of the October 5 vote.