Persistent high-pressure patterns and a broad European heat dome are sustaining the current heatwave across Spain, with official AEMET guidance and ensemble models indicating Madrid maximum temperatures of 38–39 °C on 12 August under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow. Hot air advection from North Africa, combined with strong daytime insolation typical of Madrid’s continental climate, supports these values, while limited cloud cover from the partial solar eclipse timing minimizes any cooling effect. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, keeping trader consensus tightly clustered around 38–39 °C as the most probable outcomes given historical August extremes and the absence of significant frontal passages.