Current forecast guidance and climatological normals around 83–84°F are anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F outcome at 48% implied probability, with 86–87°F next at 25%. August norms for Chicago place the expected daily maximum near 83.7°F, and broader monthly outlooks show highs typically spanning 77–87°F under moderate atmospheric patterns without an active heat dome or strong southerly flow. Recent model runs have shown limited day-to-day variability in the upper Midwest, keeping probabilities for extremes below 3% while the 82–83°F band retains modest support at 19.5%. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus expected later today could further refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. August?
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 20%
88-89°F 3%
NEU
$17,416 Vol.
NEU
$17,416 Vol.
4. Aug. 2026
75°F oder darunter
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
50%
86-87°F
26%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F oder höher
<1%
84-85°F 50%
86-87°F 26%
82-83°F 20%
88-89°F 3%
NEU
$17,416 Vol.
NEU
$17,416 Vol.
4. Aug. 2026
75°F oder darunter
$533 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$476 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$2,300 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$1,512 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$2,978 Vol.
20%
84-85°F
$2,703 Vol.
50%
86-87°F
$1,810 Vol.
26%
88-89°F
$2,186 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$1,683 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$593 Vol.
<1%
94°F oder höher
$643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance and climatological normals around 83–84°F are anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F outcome at 48% implied probability, with 86–87°F next at 25%. August norms for Chicago place the expected daily maximum near 83.7°F, and broader monthly outlooks show highs typically spanning 77–87°F under moderate atmospheric patterns without an active heat dome or strong southerly flow. Recent model runs have shown limited day-to-day variability in the upper Midwest, keeping probabilities for extremes below 3% while the 82–83°F band retains modest support at 19.5%. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus expected later today could further refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volumen
$17,416Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance and climatological normals around 83–84°F are anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F outcome at 48% implied probability, with 86–87°F next at 25%. August norms for Chicago place the expected daily maximum near 83.7°F, and broader monthly outlooks show highs typically spanning 77–87°F under moderate atmospheric patterns without an active heat dome or strong southerly flow. Recent model runs have shown limited day-to-day variability in the upper Midwest, keeping probabilities for extremes below 3% while the 82–83°F band retains modest support at 19.5%. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus expected later today could further refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$17,416Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance and climatological normals around 83–84°F are anchoring trader consensus on the 84–85°F outcome at 48% implied probability, with 86–87°F next at 25%. August norms for Chicago place the expected daily maximum near 83.7°F, and broader monthly outlooks show highs typically spanning 77–87°F under moderate atmospheric patterns without an active heat dome or strong southerly flow. Recent model runs have shown limited day-to-day variability in the upper Midwest, keeping probabilities for extremes below 3% while the 82–83°F band retains modest support at 19.5%. Updated National Weather Service guidance and ensemble consensus expected later today could further refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen