Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data, with a 0.3% month-over-month rise versus 0.2% consensus, has prompted Wall Street economists to lift August core PCE tracking estimates toward 0.25–0.30% monthly, supporting year-over-year readings near 3.3%. July core PCE printed 3.3% year-over-year, and traders are weighing this momentum against the Bureau of Economic Analysis annual methodology update expected in the September 30 release, which could produce downward revisions to the year-over-year series. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 3.2% and 3.3%, reflecting uncertainty over how much the CPI surprise will carry through versus revision effects, with 3.1% still carrying notable weight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,2 % 38%
3,3 % 25%
3,4 % 17%
3,1 % 16%
$15,835 Vol.
$15,835 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
≤3,0 %
5%
3,1 %
16%
3,2 %
38%
3,3 %
25%
3,4 %
17%
3,5 %
6%
3,6 %+
3%
3,2 % 38%
3,3 % 25%
3,4 % 17%
3,1 % 16%
$15,835 Vol.
$15,835 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
≤3,0 %
$1,010 Vol.
5%
3,1 %
$5,969 Vol.
16%
3,2 %
$4,277 Vol.
38%
3,3 %
$600 Vol.
25%
3,4 %
$1,601 Vol.
17%
3,5 %
$1,457 Vol.
6%
3,6 %+
$919 Vol.
3%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data, with a 0.3% month-over-month rise versus 0.2% consensus, has prompted Wall Street economists to lift August core PCE tracking estimates toward 0.25–0.30% monthly, supporting year-over-year readings near 3.3%. July core PCE printed 3.3% year-over-year, and traders are weighing this momentum against the Bureau of Economic Analysis annual methodology update expected in the September 30 release, which could produce downward revisions to the year-over-year series. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 3.2% and 3.3%, reflecting uncertainty over how much the CPI surprise will carry through versus revision effects, with 3.1% still carrying notable weight.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ET
Volumen
$15,835Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data, with a 0.3% month-over-month rise versus 0.2% consensus, has prompted Wall Street economists to lift August core PCE tracking estimates toward 0.25–0.30% monthly, supporting year-over-year readings near 3.3%. July core PCE printed 3.3% year-over-year, and traders are weighing this momentum against the Bureau of Economic Analysis annual methodology update expected in the September 30 release, which could produce downward revisions to the year-over-year series. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 3.2% and 3.3%, reflecting uncertainty over how much the CPI surprise will carry through versus revision effects, with 3.1% still carrying notable weight.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volumen
$15,835Enddatum
30. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 3:47 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI data, with a 0.3% month-over-month rise versus 0.2% consensus, has prompted Wall Street economists to lift August core PCE tracking estimates toward 0.25–0.30% monthly, supporting year-over-year readings near 3.3%. July core PCE printed 3.3% year-over-year, and traders are weighing this momentum against the Bureau of Economic Analysis annual methodology update expected in the September 30 release, which could produce downward revisions to the year-over-year series. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 3.2% and 3.3%, reflecting uncertainty over how much the CPI surprise will carry through versus revision effects, with 3.1% still carrying notable weight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen