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icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

icon for Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl
Politik·Brasilien

Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl

Lula 92%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury 1.6%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket
NEU

Lula 92%

Flavio Bolsonaro 7%

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury 1.6%

Clariana Barao <1%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Lula

Lula

$882 Vol.

92%

icon for Flavio Bolsonaro

Flavio Bolsonaro

$171 Vol.

7%

icon for Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

Schriftsteller Augusto Cury

$95 Vol.

2%

icon for Clariana Barao

Clariana Barao

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Hertz Dias

Hertz Dias

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Samara

Samara

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Veterinário Wilson Grassi

Veterinário Wilson Grassi

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Pablo Marçal

Pablo Marçal

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$95 Vol.

1%

icon for Zema

Zema

$175 Vol.

1%

icon for Rui Costa Pimenta

Rui Costa Pimenta

$295 Vol.

1%

icon for Edmilson Costa

Edmilson Costa

$259 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, 2026, buoyed by consistent polling leads of three to ten points over the nearest challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and AtlasIntel. The incumbent Workers’ Party candidate benefits from established voter coalitions in key regions, ongoing campaign organization, and the fragmented opposition field that includes multiple center-right and right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Recent campaign milestones, including the start of free electoral broadcasts and the initial presidential debate, have not altered Lula’s first-round edge despite a narrowing runoff margin in some head-to-head simulations. Trader consensus on a first-round victory reflects these structural advantages, though shifts could arise from further consolidation of opposition support, unexpected polling momentum for emerging names like Cury, or late developments in the final weeks before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$2,538
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding position in the first-round contest scheduled for October 4, 2026, buoyed by consistent polling leads of three to ten points over the nearest challenger, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, across recent surveys from Datafolha, Nexus, PoderData, and AtlasIntel. The incumbent Workers’ Party candidate benefits from established voter coalitions in key regions, ongoing campaign organization, and the fragmented opposition field that includes multiple center-right and right-leaning contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and Renan Santos. Recent campaign milestones, including the start of free electoral broadcasts and the initial presidential debate, have not altered Lula’s first-round edge despite a narrowing runoff margin in some head-to-head simulations. Trader consensus on a first-round victory reflects these structural advantages, though shifts could arise from further consolidation of opposition support, unexpected polling momentum for emerging names like Cury, or late developments in the final weeks before voting.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$2,538
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 31, 2026, 1:47 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

Wird Flávio Bolsonaro in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den zweiten Platz belegen?

87%
Ja
icon for Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

Wird Augusto Cury in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

53%
Ja
icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

86%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Lula" mit 92%, gefolgt von „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 92¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 92% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" ist „Lula" mit 92%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 92% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Flavio Bolsonaro" mit 7%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Gewinner der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.