Incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) holds a narrow lead in recent Datafolha polling from August 2026 at 47% to João Campos (PSB) at 40%, consistent with trader consensus favoring her at 53.5% implied probability while Campos sits at 37.5%. The race remains competitive because Campos maintains strong support among petista voters aligned with Lula, while Lyra benefits from 68% approval of her administration and leads among bolsonaristas and independents. Eight candidates are registered for the October 4 first round, with minor names like Ivan Moraes polling at 1% or below. Separation could emerge from final campaign messaging, turnout patterns in key regions, or shifts in undecided voters before any potential October 25 runoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRaquel Lyra 54%
João Campos 38%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$46,087 Vol.
$46,087 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Raquel Lyra
54%
João Campos
38%
Ivan Moraes
<1%
Raquel Lyra 54%
João Campos 38%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$46,087 Vol.
$46,087 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Raquel Lyra
$20,916 Vol.
54%
João Campos
$20,109 Vol.
38%
Ivan Moraes
$5,063 Vol.
<1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) holds a narrow lead in recent Datafolha polling from August 2026 at 47% to João Campos (PSB) at 40%, consistent with trader consensus favoring her at 53.5% implied probability while Campos sits at 37.5%. The race remains competitive because Campos maintains strong support among petista voters aligned with Lula, while Lyra benefits from 68% approval of her administration and leads among bolsonaristas and independents. Eight candidates are registered for the October 4 first round, with minor names like Ivan Moraes polling at 1% or below. Separation could emerge from final campaign messaging, turnout patterns in key regions, or shifts in undecided voters before any potential October 25 runoff.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Volumen
$46,087Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) holds a narrow lead in recent Datafolha polling from August 2026 at 47% to João Campos (PSB) at 40%, consistent with trader consensus favoring her at 53.5% implied probability while Campos sits at 37.5%. The race remains competitive because Campos maintains strong support among petista voters aligned with Lula, while Lyra benefits from 68% approval of her administration and leads among bolsonaristas and independents. Eight candidates are registered for the October 4 first round, with minor names like Ivan Moraes polling at 1% or below. Separation could emerge from final campaign messaging, turnout patterns in key regions, or shifts in undecided voters before any potential October 25 runoff.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$46,087Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Governor Raquel Lyra (PSD) holds a narrow lead in recent Datafolha polling from August 2026 at 47% to João Campos (PSB) at 40%, consistent with trader consensus favoring her at 53.5% implied probability while Campos sits at 37.5%. The race remains competitive because Campos maintains strong support among petista voters aligned with Lula, while Lyra benefits from 68% approval of her administration and leads among bolsonaristas and independents. Eight candidates are registered for the October 4 first round, with minor names like Ivan Moraes polling at 1% or below. Separation could emerge from final campaign messaging, turnout patterns in key regions, or shifts in undecided voters before any potential October 25 runoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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