**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert39 %+ 54%
36-39% 13%
33–36 % 8.0%
30–33 % 8%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
<30%
4%
30–33 %
8%
33–36 %
10%
36-39%
18%
39 %+
54%
39 %+ 54%
36-39% 13%
33–36 % 8.0%
30–33 % 8%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
<30%
$166 Vol.
4%
30–33 %
$317 Vol.
8%
33–36 %
$272 Vol.
10%
36-39%
$344 Vol.
18%
39 %+
$561 Vol.
54%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,661Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$1,661Enddatum
5. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 15, 2026, 10:26 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling aggregates place Flávio Bolsonaro’s first-round support in the low-to-mid 30s percent range, with several September surveys showing 31–37% as the Liberal Party nominee consolidates right-wing voters ahead of the October 4 vote.** Lula da Silva leads in most first-round matchups but by narrower margins than earlier in the campaign, while minor candidates split the remainder. A late surge for Bolsonaro has been linked to institutional controversies involving the Supreme Federal Court and renewed mobilization of his father’s base, helping narrow gaps in both first- and second-round scenarios. Traders appear to weigh this upward polling momentum and vote consolidation more heavily than residual rejection levels or undecided shares, producing the current pricing that favors outcomes at or above 39%. The race remains sensitive to final-week turnout dynamics and any further shifts in right-wing cohesion.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird Lula in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 44 % oder mehr der gültigen Stimmen erhalten?
44%
Ja
Wird Renan Santos zwischen 4 % und 6 % der gültigen Stimmen in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 gewinnen?
33%
Ja
Wird Augusto Cury zwischen 2 % und 4 % der gültigen Stimmen im ersten Wahlgang der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 erhalten?
36%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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