The near-certain 99.3% market-implied odds against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 reflect the established scientific consensus from USGS data and geophysical modeling that such events exceed the physical limits of Earth's tectonic systems. The largest recorded quake reached 9.5 in Chile's 1960 megathrust rupture along the Nazca-South American subduction zone, with moment magnitude calculations showing that fault area, slip, and rock rigidity cannot scale to M10 without violating known constraints on subduction zone lengths and stress accumulation. Recent 2026 activity, including events up to 7.8, aligns with typical patterns and offers no indication of anomalous strain buildup. While model uncertainties exist in long-term forecasting, the short remaining timeframe and absence of any historical or observational precedent reinforce trader confidence in the outcome.