Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its roughly 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and setting back centrifuge operations. IAEA reports through September 2026 confirm persistent lack of access to these sites, preventing verification of stockpile status or resumption of enrichment, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding has maintained a fragile status quo amid disputed inspection terms. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no nuclear weapon by end-2026 reflects this extended timeline to breakout. Remaining risks include undetected reconstitution at sites like Pickaxe Mountain, collapsed negotiations leading to resumed high-level enrichment, or covert weaponization of surviving material if IAEA oversight stays blocked.