Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$228,755 Vol.
$228,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$228,755 Vol.
$228,755 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$228,755শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$228,755শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged major Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, rendering significant portions of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried under rubble. IAEA assessments through mid-2026, including the June 4 report, indicate no verified resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access and little change from pre-strike evaluations. Ongoing bilateral talks, including interim U.S.-Iran understandings and a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming Iran's commitment against nuclear weapons development, have prioritized limits and verification over escalation. These factors, combined with the absence of any confirmed test preparations or activity, underpin trader consensus on the low likelihood of an Iranian nuclear detonation before the end of 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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