Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a clear pathway to Palestinian statehood as a precondition for normalization remains the dominant barrier, with Riyadh reaffirming this stance in 2026 statements amid domestic public opinion and risk assessments. The July 2026 U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement, which President Trump publicly tied to Saudi participation in the Abraham Accords, produced no shift in the kingdom’s position despite U.S. diplomatic pressure. Recent regional developments, including the 2026 Iran conflict that diminished Iran’s threat perception and strengthened Riyadh-Washington ties independently of Israel, have further reduced shared incentives that once advanced talks. With only months left before the 2027 deadline and no breakthrough in bilateral or mediated negotiations, trader consensus at 93.5% for “No” reflects these entrenched political and procedural obstacles.