Recent Central Weather Administration forecasts for Taipei project daytime highs of 35–36°C on August 14, consistent with August climatology where average highs reach 32–34°C amid high humidity and afternoon thunderstorm potential. These conditions, without major typhoon influences or significant cooling patterns in the short-term outlook, position 36°C as the leading market outcome at 36.5% implied probability, followed closely by 35°C and 37°C. Traders weigh ensemble model agreement and seasonal baselines against forecast uncertainty in peak temperatures, with refined CWA updates and observational data expected to refine probabilities before resolution.