Forecast models from agencies including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show Munich's August 25 maximum likely settling near 21–23 °C under a weak high-pressure ridge with increasing cloud cover and possible late-day showers. This narrow range reflects modest daytime heating, light easterly flow, and surface dew points that limit convective lift, keeping values close to late-August climatological normals of roughly 22–24 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probability to 21 °C because ensemble spreads indicate a modest downward bias if showers arrive earlier than currently projected, while the 23 °C-or-higher bracket captures any delay in cloud build-up or slightly stronger insolation. Updated model runs and official observations through August 24 will refine these probabilities before resolution.