Recent forecasts from China Meteorological Administration and other models show Beijing under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies on September 21, with light southerly winds supporting daytime radiative heating and highs clustered between 29–31°C. This positioning reflects the typical late-September transition in the North China Plain, where high pressure promotes clear conditions and modest warming before cooler air arrives later in the week. Model consensus remains tight but includes minor spread from cloud timing and urban heat island effects, which can add 1–2°C locally. The evenly distributed market probabilities around 28–34°C capture this narrow uncertainty range in official guidance, with lower outcomes discounted by the absence of significant cooling mechanisms in the near-term pattern.