Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, tariffs, and energy costs—pushing recent PCE readings to 3.6–4.1%—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Fed rate paths through December 2026. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish dot-plot shift showing nine participants expecting at least one hike, markets price meaningful probabilities of 25-basis-point increases at the September 16, October, and December meetings. Resilient labor data, including 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, support the case against easing while creating uncertainty around the exact timing and sequence of any tightening. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases will serve as key swing factors in this closely contested pricing environment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$11,663 Vol.
$11,663 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
12%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Hike–Pause 11.9%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
$11,663 Vol.
$11,663 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$489 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 Vol.
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
12%
Other
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, tariffs, and energy costs—pushing recent PCE readings to 3.6–4.1%—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Fed rate paths through December 2026. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish dot-plot shift showing nine participants expecting at least one hike, markets price meaningful probabilities of 25-basis-point increases at the September 16, October, and December meetings. Resilient labor data, including 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, support the case against easing while creating uncertainty around the exact timing and sequence of any tightening. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases will serve as key swing factors in this closely contested pricing environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$11,663শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, tariffs, and energy costs—pushing recent PCE readings to 3.6–4.1%—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Fed rate paths through December 2026. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish dot-plot shift showing nine participants expecting at least one hike, markets price meaningful probabilities of 25-basis-point increases at the September 16, October, and December meetings. Resilient labor data, including 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, support the case against easing while creating uncertainty around the exact timing and sequence of any tightening. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases will serve as key swing factors in this closely contested pricing environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$11,663শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East supply shocks, tariffs, and energy costs—pushing recent PCE readings to 3.6–4.1%—remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Fed rate paths through December 2026. With the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% and new Chair Kevin Warsh overseeing a hawkish dot-plot shift showing nine participants expecting at least one hike, markets price meaningful probabilities of 25-basis-point increases at the September 16, October, and December meetings. Resilient labor data, including 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains, support the case against easing while creating uncertainty around the exact timing and sequence of any tightening. Upcoming CPI, PCE, and employment releases will serve as key swing factors in this closely contested pricing environment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা