Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communications are the main drivers behind the dispersed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for September through December 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, above the 2% target, while June projections showed nine of 19 policymakers anticipating at least one rate increase by year-end amid resilient growth and labor market data. The removal of forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh has heightened data dependence, with the August CPI release due September 11 serving as a key input before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with no single path exceeding 27% as traders weigh persistent price pressures against potential softening in activity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Hike–Hike–Pause 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
11%
Pause–Pause–Hike
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
9%
Other
8%
Pause–Pause–Pause 27%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 13%
Hike–Hike–Pause 11%
$11,653 Vol.
$11,653 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
9%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$479 Vol.
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 Vol.
11%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,140 Vol.
27%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
11%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 Vol.
9%
Other
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communications are the main drivers behind the dispersed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for September through December 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, above the 2% target, while June projections showed nine of 19 policymakers anticipating at least one rate increase by year-end amid resilient growth and labor market data. The removal of forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh has heightened data dependence, with the August CPI release due September 11 serving as a key input before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with no single path exceeding 27% as traders weigh persistent price pressures against potential softening in activity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$11,653শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communications are the main drivers behind the dispersed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for September through December 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, above the 2% target, while June projections showed nine of 19 policymakers anticipating at least one rate increase by year-end amid resilient growth and labor market data. The removal of forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh has heightened data dependence, with the August CPI release due September 11 serving as a key input before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with no single path exceeding 27% as traders weigh persistent price pressures against potential softening in activity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$11,653শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings and a hawkish shift in Federal Reserve communications are the main drivers behind the dispersed probabilities across Fed decision sequences for September through December 2026. July CPI came in at 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, above the 2% target, while June projections showed nine of 19 policymakers anticipating at least one rate increase by year-end amid resilient growth and labor market data. The removal of forward guidance under Chair Kevin Warsh has heightened data dependence, with the August CPI release due September 11 serving as a key input before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Market-implied odds reflect this uncertainty, with no single path exceeding 27% as traders weigh persistent price pressures against potential softening in activity.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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