Politics prediction market odds

Brazil Presidential Election — Flávio Bolsonaro 85%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 16%, Geraldo Alckmin <1%, Tarcisio de Freitas <1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner — Flavio Bolsonaro >99%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%, Candidate C 50%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place — Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva >99%, Flávio Bolsonaro <1%, Tarcisio de Freitas <1%, Jair Bolsonaro <1%
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms — Democrats Sweep 66%, R Senate, D House 28%, Republicans Sweep 8%, D Senate, R House 1%
Next French Presidential Election — Marine Le Pen 45%, Édouard Philippe 18%, Jean-Luc Mélenchon 12%, David Lisnard 11%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? — Yes <1%, No >99%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place — Augusto Cury 99%, Renan Santos <1%, Ronaldo Caiado <1%, Tarcisio de Freitas <1%
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 — Gavin Newsom 17%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 17%, Jon Ossoff 15%, Kamala Harris 7%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 99%, Lula da Silva <5% <1%, Lula da Silva 5-10% <1%, Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% <1%
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? — Gadi Eizenkot 46%, Benjamin Netanyahu 36%, Naftali Bennett 10%, Avigdor Lieberman 2%
Which party will win the House in 2026? — Democratic Party 92%, Republican Party 8%, Party A —, Party B —
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? — March 31 72%, December 31 53%, November 30 34%, October 31 22%
Presidential Election Winner 2028 — JD Vance 20%, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13%, Jon Ossoff 11%, Marco Rubio 9%
Elon Musk # tweets September 29 - October 6, 2026? — 220-239 40%, 240-259 40%, 260-279 10%, 200-219 8%
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff? — Flavio Bolsonaro >99%, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva >99%, Romeu Zema <1%, Tarcisio de Frietas <1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — Yes 2%, No 98%
Elon Musk # tweets October 3 - October 5, 2026? — 65-89 60%, 40-64 38%, 90-114 3%, 115-139 <1%
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — J.D. Vance 50%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 49%, Marco Rubio 15%, Tucker Carlson 3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — Yes 16%, No 84%
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? — October 5 99%, October 7 97%, October 9 95%, October 12 91%
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026 — Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms 16%, Save the Children 8%, Mykola Kuleba 6%, International Court of Justice 6%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? — December 31 18%, October 31 8%, September 30 <1%
Which party will win the Senate in 2026? — Democratic Party 68%, Republican Party 34%, Party A —, Party B —
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? — December 31 3%, October 31 1%
Elon Musk # tweets October 2 - October 9, 2026? — 200-219 28%, 220-239 24%, 240-259 16%, 180-199 14%
Bahia Governor Election Winner — Jerônimo Rodrigues 98%, ACM Neto 2%, João Roma <1%, José Carlos Aleluia <1%
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? — Yes 4%, No 96%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Renan Santos Vote Share? — 2-4% 99%, 4-6% <1%, <2% <1%, 6-8% <1%
Taipei Mayor Election Winner — Chiang Wan-an 72%, Candidate A 50%, Candidate B 50%, Candidate C 50%
Who will be Trump's AI "czar" in 2026? — Jay Clayton 95%, Person B 50%, Person C 50%, Person D 50%
South Carolina Senate Election Winner — Darline Graham Nordone (R) 86%, Annie Andrews (D) 14%, Person A —, Person B —
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Flávio Bolsonaro Vote Share? (Higher Strikes) — 45-48% 98%, 48-51% 2%, 42-45% <1%, <39% <1%
Lima Mayoral Election Winner — Rafael López Aliaga 93%, Person B 50%, Person C 50%, Person D 50%
Bulgaria Presidential Election — Iliana Iotova 86%, Аndrey Gyurov 10%, Kostadin Kostadinov <1%, Nikolai Denkov <1%
California Governor Election Winner — Xavier Becerra 95%, Steve Hilton 5%, Tom Steyer <1%, Rick Caruso <1%
Spain snap election called by...? — December 31 88%, November 30 82%, October 31 76%, Spain snap election called in 2026? (copy) 50%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Lula Vote Share? — 44%+ 98%, 41-44% 2%, 35-38% <1%, 38-41% <1%
Elon Musk # tweets October 6 - October 13, 2026? — 200-219 24%, 180-199 20%, 220-239 20%, 160-179 10%
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...? — November 30 78%, November 15 74%, October 31 59%, October 15 34%
Michigan Senate Election Winner — Abdul El-Sayed (D) 72%, Mike Rogers (R) 27%, Person A —, Person B —