The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于到2027年美国债务违约？
到2027年美国债务违约？
是
3% 概率
$16,315 交易量
$16,315 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 概率
$16,315 交易量
$16,315 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$16,315结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$16,315结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt ceiling by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating borrowing headroom projected to last into mid-to-late 2027 before extraordinary measures become necessary. Trader consensus at 97.5% against default by end-2027 reflects Congress’s consistent historical record of raising or suspending the limit ahead of exhaustion, the Treasury’s use of accounting maneuvers as a multi-month buffer, and bipartisan incentives to prevent disruptions to Treasury payments, interest obligations, and broader financial markets. Debt subject to the limit is expected to approach the cap in 2027, requiring further legislative action on appropriations or reconciliation. Even extended negotiations or partisan standoffs have resolved without default in prior cycles, though an unprecedented failure to act before extraordinary measures expire could still alter the outcome.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题