**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities low on this market.** Washington has long upheld UNCLOS principles of free transit passage through the international waterway without charges for simple transit. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum established a 60-day toll-free period after the ceasefire, with future administration to be negotiated among Iran, Oman, and others. In mid-July, President Trump briefly proposed the US acting as “Guardian” and collecting a 20% cargo reimbursement for security costs, but quickly shifted focus to Gulf investment deals instead. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, continue to reject service-fee proposals from Iran or others, citing legal barriers and lack of sustained domestic interest in implementing a US levy. Traders assign minimal odds of collection by year-end due to these consistent policy signals and procedural hurdles. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any renewed escalation could still influence developments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$972,755 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
4%
$972,755 交易量
12月31日
$104,451 交易量
4%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities low on this market.** Washington has long upheld UNCLOS principles of free transit passage through the international waterway without charges for simple transit. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum established a 60-day toll-free period after the ceasefire, with future administration to be negotiated among Iran, Oman, and others. In mid-July, President Trump briefly proposed the US acting as “Guardian” and collecting a 20% cargo reimbursement for security costs, but quickly shifted focus to Gulf investment deals instead. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, continue to reject service-fee proposals from Iran or others, citing legal barriers and lack of sustained domestic interest in implementing a US levy. Traders assign minimal odds of collection by year-end due to these consistent policy signals and procedural hurdles. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any renewed escalation could still influence developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
交易量
$972,755结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ETThis market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities low on this market.** Washington has long upheld UNCLOS principles of free transit passage through the international waterway without charges for simple transit. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum established a 60-day toll-free period after the ceasefire, with future administration to be negotiated among Iran, Oman, and others. In mid-July, President Trump briefly proposed the US acting as “Guardian” and collecting a 20% cargo reimbursement for security costs, but quickly shifted focus to Gulf investment deals instead. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, continue to reject service-fee proposals from Iran or others, citing legal barriers and lack of sustained domestic interest in implementing a US levy. Traders assign minimal odds of collection by year-end due to these consistent policy signals and procedural hurdles. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any renewed escalation could still influence developments within the resolution window.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.
The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.
The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$972,755结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET**US administration opposition to any fees or tolls on the Strait of Hormuz remains the dominant factor keeping implied probabilities low on this market.** Washington has long upheld UNCLOS principles of free transit passage through the international waterway without charges for simple transit. A June 2026 US-Iran memorandum established a 60-day toll-free period after the ceasefire, with future administration to be negotiated among Iran, Oman, and others. In mid-July, President Trump briefly proposed the US acting as “Guardian” and collecting a 20% cargo reimbursement for security costs, but quickly shifted focus to Gulf investment deals instead. US officials, including Secretary Rubio, continue to reject service-fee proposals from Iran or others, citing legal barriers and lack of sustained domestic interest in implementing a US levy. Traders assign minimal odds of collection by year-end due to these consistent policy signals and procedural hurdles. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any renewed escalation could still influence developments within the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题