**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic through attacks on vessels, Iranian IRGC enforcement of designated routes, blacklisting of tankers, and US naval measures, yet daily transits have not reached zero.** Data from Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch show averages of roughly 5–13 commodity ships per day in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130+—with some dark (AIS-off) movements and limited official crossings continuing despite war-risk premiums and rerouting pressures. As of early September 2026, Iran announced plans for a new restricted zone and revised corridors under its management, following a collapsed June MOU and renewed strikes, while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. These dynamics sustain minimal but non-zero activity, keeping trader consensus on a complete zero-transit day (per IMF PortWatch) at low implied probability through September. Key near-term factors include any escalation in enforcement, de-escalation talks, or further incidents that could alter routing viability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$800,920 交易量
2026-08-31
August 31
6%
9月30日
28%
10月31日
44%
$800,920 交易量
August 31
$120,926 交易量
6%
9月30日
$18,188 交易量
28%
10月31日
$624 交易量
44%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic through attacks on vessels, Iranian IRGC enforcement of designated routes, blacklisting of tankers, and US naval measures, yet daily transits have not reached zero.**
Data from Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch show averages of roughly 5–13 commodity ships per day in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130+—with some dark (AIS-off) movements and limited official crossings continuing despite war-risk premiums and rerouting pressures. As of early September 2026, Iran announced plans for a new restricted zone and revised corridors under its management, following a collapsed June MOU and renewed strikes, while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. These dynamics sustain minimal but non-zero activity, keeping trader consensus on a complete zero-transit day (per IMF PortWatch) at low implied probability through September. Key near-term factors include any escalation in enforcement, de-escalation talks, or further incidents that could alter routing viability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
交易量
$800,920结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 12:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between June 26 and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic through attacks on vessels, Iranian IRGC enforcement of designated routes, blacklisting of tankers, and US naval measures, yet daily transits have not reached zero.**
Data from Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch show averages of roughly 5–13 commodity ships per day in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130+—with some dark (AIS-off) movements and limited official crossings continuing despite war-risk premiums and rerouting pressures. As of early September 2026, Iran announced plans for a new restricted zone and revised corridors under its management, following a collapsed June MOU and renewed strikes, while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. These dynamics sustain minimal but non-zero activity, keeping trader consensus on a complete zero-transit day (per IMF PortWatch) at low implied probability through September. Key near-term factors include any escalation in enforcement, de-escalation talks, or further incidents that could alter routing viability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No."
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$800,920结束日期
2026-09-30市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 12:28 PM ET**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since February 2026 have sharply reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic through attacks on vessels, Iranian IRGC enforcement of designated routes, blacklisting of tankers, and US naval measures, yet daily transits have not reached zero.** Data from Kpler, Windward, and IMF PortWatch show averages of roughly 5–13 commodity ships per day in recent weeks—far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130+—with some dark (AIS-off) movements and limited official crossings continuing despite war-risk premiums and rerouting pressures. As of early September 2026, Iran announced plans for a new restricted zone and revised corridors under its management, following a collapsed June MOU and renewed strikes, while the US maintains a blockade on Iranian ports. These dynamics sustain minimal but non-zero activity, keeping trader consensus on a complete zero-transit day (per IMF PortWatch) at low implied probability through September. Key near-term factors include any escalation in enforcement, de-escalation talks, or further incidents that could alter routing viability.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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