**Elevated war-risk insurance premiums and selective Houthi targeting of Saudi-linked tankers remain the dominant drivers of subdued Bab el-Mandeb volumes, with recent weekly totals stabilizing near 250–270 transits amid ongoing Red Sea threats.** Following the July 2026 blockade announcement and subsequent attacks—including strikes on vessels near Yanbu—mainstream tanker traffic has fallen sharply while container and select non-Western flows have held steadier, producing the current market-implied range centered on 170–229 weekly transits. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether recent daily averages of roughly 35–60 vessels will persist through the September 7 week or face further disruption from expanded insurance costs (now 0.5–1% of hull value) and potential new incidents. Key near-term catalysts include any fresh Houthi statements, reported attacks, or shifts in freight-rate differentials that could tip marginal operators toward Cape rerouting.