Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, reflected in partisan voting indices and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating. Thompson, first elected in 2009 and the dean of the state's delegation, faces Democrat Ray Bilger following unopposed primaries in May 2026. The north-central Pennsylvania district's voter base has supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, limiting Democratic fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome near 94 percent because structural factors like incumbency and district composition outweigh typical midterm variables. A significant national Democratic wave, late scandal, or health event could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in comparably rated seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,575 交易量
$25,575 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$25,575 交易量
$25,575 交易量
2026-11-02
共和党
$9,179 交易量
95%
民主党
$16,397 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, reflected in partisan voting indices and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating. Thompson, first elected in 2009 and the dean of the state's delegation, faces Democrat Ray Bilger following unopposed primaries in May 2026. The north-central Pennsylvania district's voter base has supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, limiting Democratic fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome near 94 percent because structural factors like incumbency and district composition outweigh typical midterm variables. A significant national Democratic wave, late scandal, or health event could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in comparably rated seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$25,575结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, reflected in partisan voting indices and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating. Thompson, first elected in 2009 and the dean of the state's delegation, faces Democrat Ray Bilger following unopposed primaries in May 2026. The north-central Pennsylvania district's voter base has supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, limiting Democratic fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome near 94 percent because structural factors like incumbency and district composition outweigh typical midterm variables. A significant national Democratic wave, late scandal, or health event could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in comparably rated seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$25,575结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Glenn Thompson holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district race due to the seat's consistent Republican lean, reflected in partisan voting indices and Cook Political Report's Solid R rating. Thompson, first elected in 2009 and the dean of the state's delegation, faces Democrat Ray Bilger following unopposed primaries in May 2026. The north-central Pennsylvania district's voter base has supported Republican candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, limiting Democratic fundraising and visibility. Trader consensus prices the Republican outcome near 94 percent because structural factors like incumbency and district composition outweigh typical midterm variables. A significant national Democratic wave, late scandal, or health event could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain uncommon in comparably rated seats.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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