Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The freshman representative secured the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire emerged from a contested June primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration edge (Democrats at roughly 36 percent versus Republicans at 27 percent) and Conaway’s 2024 victory margin. Traders appear to view these structural advantages, combined with the district’s suburban Burlington County core, as durable barriers to a Republican upset. A late national GOP surge, unexpected candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in Mercer and Monmouth portions of the district represent the main variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$26,418 交易量
$26,418 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$26,418 交易量
$26,418 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$12,895 交易量
94%
共和党
$13,523 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The freshman representative secured the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire emerged from a contested June primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration edge (Democrats at roughly 36 percent versus Republicans at 27 percent) and Conaway’s 2024 victory margin. Traders appear to view these structural advantages, combined with the district’s suburban Burlington County core, as durable barriers to a Republican upset. A late national GOP surge, unexpected candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in Mercer and Monmouth portions of the district represent the main variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$26,418结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The freshman representative secured the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire emerged from a contested June primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration edge (Democrats at roughly 36 percent versus Republicans at 27 percent) and Conaway’s 2024 victory margin. Traders appear to view these structural advantages, combined with the district’s suburban Burlington County core, as durable barriers to a Republican upset. A late national GOP surge, unexpected candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in Mercer and Monmouth portions of the district represent the main variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$26,418结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Herb Conaway holds a commanding position in New Jersey’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The freshman representative secured the Democratic nomination without opposition, while Republican Michael McGuire emerged from a contested June primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the seat as solidly Democratic, reflecting the district’s voter registration edge (Democrats at roughly 36 percent versus Republicans at 27 percent) and Conaway’s 2024 victory margin. Traders appear to view these structural advantages, combined with the district’s suburban Burlington County core, as durable barriers to a Republican upset. A late national GOP surge, unexpected candidate-specific developments, or unusually high Republican turnout in Mercer and Monmouth portions of the district represent the main variables that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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