Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests and his established incumbency advantage after winning the seat in 2020. Primary results showed Luján securing his party's nomination decisively, while Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in candidate following limited GOP field activity. Recent polling from late August places Luján ahead by double digits among likely voters, reflecting broad support across key regions and independents. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and historical voting patterns in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift favoring Republicans or an unforeseen late development affecting turnout or candidate viability before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
97%
共和党
4%
$25,937 交易量
$25,937 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$16,678 交易量
97%
共和党
$9,258 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests and his established incumbency advantage after winning the seat in 2020. Primary results showed Luján securing his party's nomination decisively, while Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in candidate following limited GOP field activity. Recent polling from late August places Luján ahead by double digits among likely voters, reflecting broad support across key regions and independents. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and historical voting patterns in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift favoring Republicans or an unforeseen late development affecting turnout or candidate viability before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$25,937结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests and his established incumbency advantage after winning the seat in 2020. Primary results showed Luján securing his party's nomination decisively, while Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in candidate following limited GOP field activity. Recent polling from late August places Luján ahead by double digits among likely voters, reflecting broad support across key regions and independents. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and historical voting patterns in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift favoring Republicans or an unforeseen late development affecting turnout or candidate viability before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Mexico U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$25,937结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a commanding lead in the 2026 New Mexico Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic tilt in federal contests and his established incumbency advantage after winning the seat in 2020. Primary results showed Luján securing his party's nomination decisively, while Republican Larry Marker advanced only as a write-in candidate following limited GOP field activity. Recent polling from late August places Luján ahead by double digits among likely voters, reflecting broad support across key regions and independents. Trader consensus aligns with these fundamentals and historical voting patterns in the state. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant national political shift favoring Republicans or an unforeseen late development affecting turnout or candidate viability before the November general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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