Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小？
440万-460万平方公里 27.6%
460万-480万平方公里 16.4%
420万-440万平方公里 15.9%
少于400万平方公里 11%
$68,052 交易量
$68,052 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
11%
400-420万平方公里
5%
420万-440万平方公里
16%
440万-460万平方公里
44%
460万-480万平方公里
16%
480万-500万平方公里
6%
500万平方公里以上
2%
440万-460万平方公里 27.6%
460万-480万平方公里 16.4%
420万-440万平方公里 15.9%
少于400万平方公里 11%
$68,052 交易量
$68,052 交易量
2026-10-01
少于400万平方公里
$30,481 交易量
11%
400-420万平方公里
$6,592 交易量
5%
420万-440万平方公里
$3,097 交易量
16%
440万-460万平方公里
$3,128 交易量
44%
460万-480万平方公里
$6,805 交易量
16%
480万-500万平方公里
$3,475 交易量
6%
500万平方公里以上
$14,474 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
交易量
$68,052结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$68,052结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent low winter maximum sea ice extent, tied for the lowest on record at 14.29 million km² in mid-March 2026 per NSIDC and NASA data, combined with persistently below-average spring and early-summer coverage has left a thin ice pack vulnerable to melt. Early August 2026 extents near 6.2–7 million km², with notable deficits in the Kara, Laptev, and Barents seas, reinforce this setup amid the long-term downward trend of roughly 11–12% per decade since 1979. Model consensus and post-2007 analogs favor a September minimum most likely between 4.2–4.6 million km², aligning with the market’s leading 4.4–4.6 million km² bin at 44% implied probability. Ongoing NSIDC daily observations and revised Sea Ice Outlook releases through late August will supply key updates for traders monitoring melt progression and weather patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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