Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月18日武汉最低气温？
9月18日武汉最低气温？
14°C或以下 82%
24°C或更高 81%
20°C 45%
19°C 44%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
14°C或以下
82%
15°C
15%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
40%
19°C
32%
20°C
26%
21°C
8%
22°C
38%
23°C
38%
24°C或更高
81%
14°C或以下 82%
24°C或更高 81%
20°C 45%
19°C 44%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
14°C或以下
$0 交易量
82%
15°C
$0 交易量
15%
16°C
$0 交易量
18%
17°C
$0 交易量
18%
18°C
$0 交易量
40%
19°C
$17 交易量
32%
20°C
$105 交易量
26%
21°C
$142 交易量
8%
22°C
$0 交易量
38%
23°C
$0 交易量
38%
24°C或更高
$0 交易量
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-09-18市场开放时间
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent cold air advection combined with widespread rainfall from a high-altitude trough and weak surface front is the main driver behind current Polymarket odds for Wuhan's September 18 minimum temperature. Official China Meteorological Administration and Wuhan Municipal Meteorological Observatory guidance project overnight lows near 19–21 °C under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light northerly winds and scattered showers, consistent with ensemble model consensus. This places the bulk of trader-implied probability near the 19 °C and 20 °C resolution thresholds while the modest 14 °C-or-below share reflects residual tail risk if heavier rain and stronger northerly flow persist longer than expected. Model spread remains modest given the short lead time, but any faster clearing or delayed precipitation could shift the realized minimum by 1–2 °C and quickly reprice the tightly contested central outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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