In the open Louis-Hébert riding, where longtime CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault is not seeking re-election, trader prices reflect a close contest between CAQ candidate Marc-Antoine Bernier and PQ candidate Chloé Fauchon. The writ dropped in late August for the October 5 provincial vote, and Bernier’s late-August nomination as a former TVA newsroom manager has positioned the CAQ to defend its historical strength in the Capitale-Nationale region. Fauchon, a public and environmental lawyer, brings PQ momentum in a seat that has shown volatility in recent cycles. Conservative Marcos Archambault’s candidacy adds a further split on the right, while Liberal and Québec solidaire contenders trail. With nominations closing mid-September and limited new polling specific to the riding, market pricing captures uncertainty over turnout and late-campaign shifts among the main parties.