Recent polling and forecasts show Democrats holding a 7-9 point generic ballot advantage amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval rating, driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. This environment favors Democratic gains in both chambers, with models projecting Republicans ending near 50 Senate seats and 200-215 House seats. The leading Polymarket ranges of 47-49 Senate and 193-207 House seats reflect expectations of modest Republican losses concentrated in competitive races such as Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine, tempered by favorable Senate map dynamics and mid-decade redistricting that bolsters some GOP House districts. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific outcomes include the final national generic ballot margin, performance in a handful of toss-up Senate contests, and late-cycle turnout among independents and suburban voters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于47–49和193–207 24.8%
≤46和≤192 14.6%
47–49和≤192 12.8%
50–52和208–222 12.4%
$36,167 交易量
$36,167 交易量
2026-11-03
≥53 和 ≥223
4%
≥53和208–222
5%
≥53且≤207
1%
50–52 和 ≥223
1%
50–52和208–222
12%
50–52和193–207
12%
50–52和不超过192
4%
47–49 和 ≥208
7%
47–49和193–207
25%
47–49和≤192
13%
≤46 和 ≥208
<1%
不超过46个和193–207个
6%
≤46和≤192
15%
47–49和193–207 24.8%
≤46和≤192 14.6%
47–49和≤192 12.8%
50–52和208–222 12.4%
$36,167 交易量
$36,167 交易量
2026-11-03
≥53 和 ≥223
$1,399 交易量
4%
≥53和208–222
$3,499 交易量
5%
≥53且≤207
$1,220 交易量
1%
50–52 和 ≥223
$1,105 交易量
1%
50–52和208–222
$7,209 交易量
12%
50–52和193–207
$7,203 交易量
12%
50–52和不超过192
$2,470 交易量
4%
47–49 和 ≥208
$1,707 交易量
7%
47–49和193–207
$1,779 交易量
25%
47–49和≤192
$3,072 交易量
13%
≤46 和 ≥208
$1,133 交易量
<1%
不超过46个和193–207个
$1,475 交易量
6%
≤46和≤192
$2,897 交易量
15%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and forecasts show Democrats holding a 7-9 point generic ballot advantage amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval rating, driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. This environment favors Democratic gains in both chambers, with models projecting Republicans ending near 50 Senate seats and 200-215 House seats. The leading Polymarket ranges of 47-49 Senate and 193-207 House seats reflect expectations of modest Republican losses concentrated in competitive races such as Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine, tempered by favorable Senate map dynamics and mid-decade redistricting that bolsters some GOP House districts. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific outcomes include the final national generic ballot margin, performance in a handful of toss-up Senate contests, and late-cycle turnout among independents and suburban voters.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$36,167结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent polling and forecasts show Democrats holding a 7-9 point generic ballot advantage amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval rating, driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. This environment favors Democratic gains in both chambers, with models projecting Republicans ending near 50 Senate seats and 200-215 House seats. The leading Polymarket ranges of 47-49 Senate and 193-207 House seats reflect expectations of modest Republican losses concentrated in competitive races such as Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine, tempered by favorable Senate map dynamics and mid-decade redistricting that bolsters some GOP House districts. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific outcomes include the final national generic ballot margin, performance in a handful of toss-up Senate contests, and late-cycle turnout among independents and suburban voters.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$36,167结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ETRecent polling and forecasts show Democrats holding a 7-9 point generic ballot advantage amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval rating, driven by voter dissatisfaction with inflation, cost-of-living pressures, tariffs, and the Iran conflict. This environment favors Democratic gains in both chambers, with models projecting Republicans ending near 50 Senate seats and 200-215 House seats. The leading Polymarket ranges of 47-49 Senate and 193-207 House seats reflect expectations of modest Republican losses concentrated in competitive races such as Texas, Ohio, Michigan, and Maine, tempered by favorable Senate map dynamics and mid-decade redistricting that bolsters some GOP House districts. Key variables that could consolidate support around specific outcomes include the final national generic ballot margin, performance in a handful of toss-up Senate contests, and late-cycle turnout among independents and suburban voters.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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