Recent heavy rainfall across São Paulo, already the wettest September on record with over 250 mm in the first half of the month, has sustained cloud cover and moderated daytime heating ahead of a cold front arriving around September 22. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and regional models project a September 21 high near 30–32 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with northerly winds, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (49 %) to 27 °C or below. This positioning reflects trader caution around model spread, the influence of persistent moisture on maximum temperatures, and historical September averages near 23–26 °C. Updated model runs and Inmet observations over the next 48 hours will likely drive the largest shifts in these near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月21日圣保罗的最高温度？
9月21日圣保罗的最高温度？
28℃ 30%
31°C 30%
30°C 28%
33°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
17%
28℃
30%
29°C
25%
30°C
28%
31°C
30%
32°C
23%
33°C
26%
34°C
26%
35°C
4%
36°C
4%
37°C或更高
2%
28℃ 30%
31°C 30%
30°C 28%
33°C 26%
最新
最新
2026-09-21
27°C或以下
$0 交易量
17%
28℃
$0 交易量
30%
29°C
$0 交易量
25%
30°C
$0 交易量
28%
31°C
$0 交易量
30%
32°C
$18 交易量
23%
33°C
$0 交易量
26%
34°C
$0 交易量
26%
35°C
$0 交易量
4%
36°C
$0 交易量
4%
37°C或更高
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall across São Paulo, already the wettest September on record with over 250 mm in the first half of the month, has sustained cloud cover and moderated daytime heating ahead of a cold front arriving around September 22. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and regional models project a September 21 high near 30–32 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with northerly winds, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (49 %) to 27 °C or below. This positioning reflects trader caution around model spread, the influence of persistent moisture on maximum temperatures, and historical September averages near 23–26 °C. Updated model runs and Inmet observations over the next 48 hours will likely drive the largest shifts in these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 19, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
交易量
$18结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 8:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent heavy rainfall across São Paulo, already the wettest September on record with over 250 mm in the first half of the month, has sustained cloud cover and moderated daytime heating ahead of a cold front arriving around September 22. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and regional models project a September 21 high near 30–32 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with northerly winds, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (49 %) to 27 °C or below. This positioning reflects trader caution around model spread, the influence of persistent moisture on maximum temperatures, and historical September averages near 23–26 °C. Updated model runs and Inmet observations over the next 48 hours will likely drive the largest shifts in these near-term probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$18结束日期
2026-09-21市场开放时间
Sep 19, 2026, 8:55 AM ETRecent heavy rainfall across São Paulo, already the wettest September on record with over 250 mm in the first half of the month, has sustained cloud cover and moderated daytime heating ahead of a cold front arriving around September 22. Official forecasts from sources including the Met Office and regional models project a September 21 high near 30–32 °C under mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions with northerly winds, yet the market assigns the highest implied probability (49 %) to 27 °C or below. This positioning reflects trader caution around model spread, the influence of persistent moisture on maximum temperatures, and historical September averages near 23–26 °C. Updated model runs and Inmet observations over the next 48 hours will likely drive the largest shifts in these near-term probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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