Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月2日旧金山气温最高？
9月2日旧金山气温最高？
63°F或以下 99.5%
82°F或更高 52.0%
80-81°F 51.6%
64-65°F 51%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
63°F或以下
100%
64-65°F
51%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
14%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
27%
74-75°F
11%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
52%
82°F或更高
52%
63°F或以下 99.5%
82°F或更高 52.0%
80-81°F 51.6%
64-65°F 51%
最新
最新
2026-09-02
63°F或以下
$308 交易量
100%
64-65°F
$25 交易量
51%
66-67°F
$82 交易量
9%
68-69°F
$83 交易量
14%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
49%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
27%
74-75°F
$2 交易量
11%
76-77°F
$66 交易量
1%
78-79°F
$182 交易量
1%
80-81°F
$5 交易量
52%
82°F或更高
$5 交易量
52%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
交易量
$759结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$759结束日期
2026-09-02市场开放时间
Aug 31, 2026, 7:56 AM ETRecent short-range model consensus and National Weather Service guidance point to a highest temperature near San Francisco’s early-September climatological average of ~70°F on September 2, driven by persistent onshore flow and a strong marine layer that limits daytime heating. Trader-implied odds cluster around 70-73°F because ensembles show only modest warming potential if afternoon clearing occurs, while probabilities drop sharply above 76°F given the cool Pacific sea-surface temperatures and troughing favored in the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook. Key variables include the timing of any stratus burn-off, southwest wind strength, and exact boundary-layer moisture; updated NWS and high-resolution model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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