The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于法比亚诺·孔塔拉托 42%
法比安教授 41%
马科斯·多·瓦尔 35%
莱昂纳多·蒙贾尔迪姆 31%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
法比亚诺·孔塔拉托
42%
法比安教授
41%
马科斯·多·瓦尔
35%
莱昂纳多·蒙贾尔迪姆
31%
Evair de Melo
28%
玛吉尼亚·马尔塔
28%
罗丝·德·弗雷塔斯
27%
雷纳托·卡萨格兰德
25%
Rodney Miranda
25%
卡莱加里
22%
塞尔吉奥·梅内格利
21%
法比亚诺·孔塔拉托 42%
法比安教授 41%
马科斯·多·瓦尔 35%
莱昂纳多·蒙贾尔迪姆 31%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
法比亚诺·孔塔拉托
$0 交易量
42%
法比安教授
$0 交易量
41%
马科斯·多·瓦尔
$0 交易量
35%
莱昂纳多·蒙贾尔迪姆
$0 交易量
31%
Evair de Melo
$0 交易量
28%
玛吉尼亚·马尔塔
$0 交易量
28%
罗丝·德·弗雷塔斯
$0 交易量
27%
雷纳托·卡萨格兰德
$0 交易量
25%
Rodney Miranda
$0 交易量
25%
卡莱加里
$0 交易量
22%
塞尔吉奥·梅内格利
$0 交易量
21%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市场开放时间： Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$0结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented contest for second place in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election keeps implied probabilities tightly bunched around 40-50% for leading contenders. Renato Casagrande (PSB) maintains a dominant polling position for first after resigning the governorship in April 2026, leaving a crowded field that includes incumbents Fabiano Contarato (PT) and Marcos do Val, along with Rose de Freitas (MDB), Evair de Melo (Republicanos), Maguinha Malta (PL), Sergio Meneguelli (PSD), and others. July 2026 surveys show Casagrande at 24-31% while most rivals remain in single digits or low teens amid 70%+ undecided or spontaneous responses. Recent polling from firms such as Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest, combined with the October 4 election timeline and absence of major endorsements or alliances that have consolidated support, sustains the even trader assessments reflected in current pricing.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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