The short timeframe of roughly 25 days until September 30, combined with the absence of active congressional removal proceedings or reported health events, underpins the 98.5% implied probability that Trump remains in office. As president, he continues signing executive orders, advancing policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and Iran-related sanctions, and maintaining a public schedule of domestic and international travel into mid-September. An impeachment resolution introduced in late August has not advanced beyond committee referral amid Republican congressional majorities, while any Senate conviction process historically requires weeks or months. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment or unforeseen resignation amid acute crisis, though both face high institutional and procedural barriers within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
2% 概率
$118,621 交易量
$118,621 交易量
2026-09-30
是
2% 概率
$118,621 交易量
$118,621 交易量
2026-09-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The short timeframe of roughly 25 days until September 30, combined with the absence of active congressional removal proceedings or reported health events, underpins the 98.5% implied probability that Trump remains in office. As president, he continues signing executive orders, advancing policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and Iran-related sanctions, and maintaining a public schedule of domestic and international travel into mid-September. An impeachment resolution introduced in late August has not advanced beyond committee referral amid Republican congressional majorities, while any Senate conviction process historically requires weeks or months. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment or unforeseen resignation amid acute crisis, though both face high institutional and procedural barriers within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
交易量
$118,621结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The short timeframe of roughly 25 days until September 30, combined with the absence of active congressional removal proceedings or reported health events, underpins the 98.5% implied probability that Trump remains in office. As president, he continues signing executive orders, advancing policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and Iran-related sanctions, and maintaining a public schedule of domestic and international travel into mid-September. An impeachment resolution introduced in late August has not advanced beyond committee referral amid Republican congressional majorities, while any Senate conviction process historically requires weeks or months. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment or unforeseen resignation amid acute crisis, though both face high institutional and procedural barriers within the narrow window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$118,621结束日期
2026-10-01市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETThe short timeframe of roughly 25 days until September 30, combined with the absence of active congressional removal proceedings or reported health events, underpins the 98.5% implied probability that Trump remains in office. As president, he continues signing executive orders, advancing policy priorities such as immigration enforcement and Iran-related sanctions, and maintaining a public schedule of domestic and international travel into mid-September. An impeachment resolution introduced in late August has not advanced beyond committee referral amid Republican congressional majorities, while any Senate conviction process historically requires weeks or months. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden cabinet invocation of the 25th Amendment or unforeseen resignation amid acute crisis, though both face high institutional and procedural barriers within the narrow window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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