Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$23,971 交易量
$23,971 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
$23,971 交易量
$23,971 交易量
2026-11-02
民主党
$12,007 交易量
96%
共和党
$11,964 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$23,971结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$23,971结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题