US constitutional procedures for admitting new states require congressional legislation and typically begin with organized territories rather than sovereign nations, creating substantial structural barriers to Venezuela's inclusion. Recent US military action against the Maduro regime in early 2026 led to his removal and temporary talk of annexation by President Trump in May, yet Venezuela's acting president immediately rejected any such prospect, stressing national independence, and bilateral relations have since normalized through reopened diplomacy and sanctions relief without further statehood steps. Traders assign overwhelming probability to "no" due to the absence of Venezuelan consent, lack of domestic political support in either country, and historical precedent limiting statehood to contiguous US territories. Unlikely shifts could still arise from an unprecedented bilateral agreement or congressional initiative, though both remain far outside current policy trajectories.