Traders assign a 96.2% implied probability that the United States will not annex any territory in 2026 because no treaty negotiations, legislative proposals, or executive initiatives currently seek Senate ratification or statutory authorization for incorporating new land. Annexation requires formal congressional action or ratified agreements meeting constitutional standards, processes absent from the legislative calendar amid focus on trade policy, alliances, and existing territorial management. Recent diplomatic signals show no escalation of long-standing claims into formal acquisition. While rhetoric around potential acquisitions such as Greenland has surfaced in prior periods, congressional opposition and lack of bilateral momentum have kept probabilities low. Realistic developments that could still shift outcomes before December 31 include an unforeseen treaty ratification, sudden resolution of a territorial dispute through congressional vote, or an unanticipated request meeting all procedural thresholds.