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icon for 委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?

委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?

icon for 委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?

委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?

德爾西·羅德里格斯 90%

瑪麗亞·科麗娜·馬查多 2.7%

迪諾拉·菲格拉 2.1%

唐納·川普 1.0%

Polymarket

$368,212 交易量

德爾西·羅德里格斯 90%

瑪麗亞·科麗娜·馬查多 2.7%

迪諾拉·菲格拉 2.1%

唐納·川普 1.0%

Polymarket

$368,212 交易量

德爾西·羅德里格斯

$86,645 交易量

90%

瑪麗亞·科麗娜·馬查多

$52,368 交易量

3%

迪諾拉·菲格拉

$4,171 交易量

2%

唐納·川普

$2,670 交易量

1%

彼特·赫格塞斯

$2,758 交易量

1%

丹·凱恩

$3,059 交易量

1%

馬可·魯比奧

$5,960 交易量

1%

尼古拉斯·馬杜羅

$4,151 交易量

1%

埃德蒙多·岡薩雷斯

$3,500 交易量

1%

無國家元首

$66,886 交易量

<1%

豪爾赫·羅德里格斯

$8,193 交易量

<1%

弗拉迪米爾·帕德里諾·洛佩斯

$68,019 交易量

<1%

法蘭克·多諾萬

$42,101 交易量

<1%

迪奧斯達多·卡貝略·隆登

$3,393 交易量

<1%

Evan Pettus

$7,128 交易量

<1%

Richard Grenell

$7,209 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela's de facto leader at the end of 2026 following her January 2026 swearing-in as acting president after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro. Venezuelan institutions including the National Assembly, Supreme Court, and armed forces have backed her continuity, while U.S. diplomatic engagement, sanctions adjustments, and economic stabilization efforts have reinforced her position amid cabinet reshuffles and purges of select Maduro allies. No elections are scheduled before late 2026, and opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile with limited institutional access. Recent factors including June 2026 earthquakes and ongoing U.S.-Venezuela talks on oil and security have not altered core regime structures or prompted a leadership shift.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$368,212
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Delcy Rodríguez holds overwhelming trader consensus as Venezuela's de facto leader at the end of 2026 following her January 2026 swearing-in as acting president after U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro. Venezuelan institutions including the National Assembly, Supreme Court, and armed forces have backed her continuity, while U.S. diplomatic engagement, sanctions adjustments, and economic stabilization efforts have reinforced her position amid cabinet reshuffles and purges of select Maduro allies. No elections are scheduled before late 2026, and opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain sidelined in exile with limited institutional access. Recent factors including June 2026 earthquakes and ongoing U.S.-Venezuela talks on oil and security have not altered core regime structures or prompted a leadership shift.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
交易量
$368,212
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
May 4, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "德爾西·羅德里格斯" at 90%, followed by "瑪麗亞·科麗娜·馬查多" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?" has generated $368.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?" is "德爾西·羅德里格斯" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "瑪麗亞·科麗娜·馬查多" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "委內瑞拉事實上的領導者在2026年底?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.