Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$158,294 交易量
$158,294 交易量
2026-12-30
是
5% 機率
$158,294 交易量
$158,294 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$158,294結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$158,294結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, including strikes that began in February 2026 and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz shipping in July and August, has kept diplomatic relations frozen. The United States maintains no physical embassy or consular presence in Iran, relying instead on Switzerland as protecting power amid repeated security alerts and reduced regional staffing. A June memorandum of understanding and subsequent extensions produced only temporary pauses in hostilities rather than full normalization or embassy restoration. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening this year reflects these barriers, though a comprehensive bilateral agreement resolving sanctions, nuclear issues, and maritime access before December 31 could still shift the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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