**Trader consensus on a low probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of recent U.S. military actions in the region.** Operations have centered on targeted counter-narcotics efforts, such as joint Green Beret and naval activities with Ecuadorian forces against drug cartels, along with strikes on suspected trafficking vessels in international waters. The January 2026 special forces raid in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro fits a pattern of precise interventions rather than broader territorial invasions or occupations. Ongoing diplomatic and military pressure on Cuba, including public statements that all options remain on the table, has not translated into confirmed invasion plans or large-scale troop deployments as of early September. U.S. engagement instead emphasizes cooperation with aligned governments on security issues, sanctions enforcement, and regional coalitions against transnational crime. No official declarations of war, major force buildups for ground operations, or congressional authorizations for new invasions have emerged in the past several months. These developments support the market's assessment that full-scale invasions remain unlikely through the end of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
9% 機率
$276,714 交易量
$276,714 交易量
2026-12-31
是
9% 機率
$276,714 交易量
$276,714 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus on a low probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of recent U.S. military actions in the region.** Operations have centered on targeted counter-narcotics efforts, such as joint Green Beret and naval activities with Ecuadorian forces against drug cartels, along with strikes on suspected trafficking vessels in international waters. The January 2026 special forces raid in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro fits a pattern of precise interventions rather than broader territorial invasions or occupations.
Ongoing diplomatic and military pressure on Cuba, including public statements that all options remain on the table, has not translated into confirmed invasion plans or large-scale troop deployments as of early September. U.S. engagement instead emphasizes cooperation with aligned governments on security issues, sanctions enforcement, and regional coalitions against transnational crime. No official declarations of war, major force buildups for ground operations, or congressional authorizations for new invasions have emerged in the past several months. These developments support the market's assessment that full-scale invasions remain unlikely through the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
交易量
$276,714結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.**Trader consensus on a low probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of recent U.S. military actions in the region.** Operations have centered on targeted counter-narcotics efforts, such as joint Green Beret and naval activities with Ecuadorian forces against drug cartels, along with strikes on suspected trafficking vessels in international waters. The January 2026 special forces raid in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro fits a pattern of precise interventions rather than broader territorial invasions or occupations.
Ongoing diplomatic and military pressure on Cuba, including public statements that all options remain on the table, has not translated into confirmed invasion plans or large-scale troop deployments as of early September. U.S. engagement instead emphasizes cooperation with aligned governments on security issues, sanctions enforcement, and regional coalitions against transnational crime. No official declarations of war, major force buildups for ground operations, or congressional authorizations for new invasions have emerged in the past several months. These developments support the market's assessment that full-scale invasions remain unlikely through the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$276,714結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET**Trader consensus on a low probability of a U.S. invasion of a Latin American country in 2026 reflects the limited scope of recent U.S. military actions in the region.** Operations have centered on targeted counter-narcotics efforts, such as joint Green Beret and naval activities with Ecuadorian forces against drug cartels, along with strikes on suspected trafficking vessels in international waters. The January 2026 special forces raid in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro fits a pattern of precise interventions rather than broader territorial invasions or occupations. Ongoing diplomatic and military pressure on Cuba, including public statements that all options remain on the table, has not translated into confirmed invasion plans or large-scale troop deployments as of early September. U.S. engagement instead emphasizes cooperation with aligned governments on security issues, sanctions enforcement, and regional coalitions against transnational crime. No official declarations of war, major force buildups for ground operations, or congressional authorizations for new invasions have emerged in the past several months. These developments support the market's assessment that full-scale invasions remain unlikely through the end of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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