Tight U.S. cattle supplies, with the national herd at a 75-year low of 86.2 million head as of January 2026, continue to constrain beef production, which USDA forecasts will fall about 2% this year to the lowest level since 2016. This dynamic, compounded by elevated feed and fertilizer costs plus drought pressures, supports wholesale beef price increases of 7-10% in 2026, with ground beef facing particular pressure from limited lean trim availability despite rising imports. Strong consumer demand has sustained retail prices near or above $9 per pound in recent periods, while steer prices are projected near $251 per cwt. Herd rebuilding remains gradual, with limited near-term relief expected before 2027-2028 as calf crops stay constrained. Key upcoming catalysts include monthly USDA livestock reports and feed cost data that could shift supply expectations.