Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 17 expected in fall 2025 and the iPhone 18 following in 2026, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply-chain reports, component announcements, or executive statements, aligning with decades of predictable September timing. While realistic tail risks such as severe manufacturing delays, major regulatory blocks on key features, or a rare strategic pivot could theoretically shift the timeline, current verified developments provide little basis for such outcomes before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
99% 機率
$173,242 交易量
$173,242 交易量
2026-12-30
是
99% 機率
$173,242 交易量
$173,242 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 17 expected in fall 2025 and the iPhone 18 following in 2026, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply-chain reports, component announcements, or executive statements, aligning with decades of predictable September timing. While realistic tail risks such as severe manufacturing delays, major regulatory blocks on key features, or a rare strategic pivot could theoretically shift the timeline, current verified developments provide little basis for such outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$173,242結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 17 expected in fall 2025 and the iPhone 18 following in 2026, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply-chain reports, component announcements, or executive statements, aligning with decades of predictable September timing. While realistic tail risks such as severe manufacturing delays, major regulatory blocks on key features, or a rare strategic pivot could theoretically shift the timeline, current verified developments provide little basis for such outcomes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$173,242結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for flagship iPhones, with the iPhone 17 expected in fall 2025 and the iPhone 18 following in 2026, underpins the near-certain 98.6% market-implied odds for a 2026 launch. Traders see no credible signs of disruption from supply-chain reports, component announcements, or executive statements, aligning with decades of predictable September timing. While realistic tail risks such as severe manufacturing delays, major regulatory blocks on key features, or a rare strategic pivot could theoretically shift the timeline, current verified developments provide little basis for such outcomes before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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