Recent declines in Tesla and SpaceX valuations after the June 2026 SpaceX IPO have driven Elon Musk's net worth below $1 trillion to around $740 billion by late July, positioning the $600–700 billion range as the leading market outcome. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus robot bets amid analyst skepticism on near-term revenue, combined with SpaceX share pressure ahead of lockup expirations and Starship test flights. The 45.5% implied probability on $600–700 billion and 24% chance of sub-$600 billion capture expectations of further short-term swings in these core holdings, while lower odds on higher brackets acknowledge limited near-term catalysts before August 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital assessments of these tech and regulatory dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$600-$700B 44%
$700-$800B 26%
<$600B 24%
$800-$900B 9%
<$600B
24%
$600-$700B
44%
$700-$800B
26%
$800-$900B
9%
$900B-$1.00T
8%
$1.00-$1.10T
5%
$1.10T+
4%
$600-$700B 44%
$700-$800B 26%
<$600B 24%
$800-$900B 9%
<$600B
24%
$600-$700B
44%
$700-$800B
26%
$800-$900B
9%
$900B-$1.00T
8%
$1.00-$1.10T
5%
$1.10T+
4%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 7:09 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index Elon Musk Profile (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/profiles/elon-r-musk/), specifically the datapoint for the specified date, once the data is finalized. If this resolution source is not available, another credible resolution source will be used.
Recent declines in Tesla and SpaceX valuations after the June 2026 SpaceX IPO have driven Elon Musk's net worth below $1 trillion to around $740 billion by late July, positioning the $600–700 billion range as the leading market outcome. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing volatility from Tesla's robotaxi and Optimus robot bets amid analyst skepticism on near-term revenue, combined with SpaceX share pressure ahead of lockup expirations and Starship test flights. The 45.5% implied probability on $600–700 billion and 24% chance of sub-$600 billion capture expectations of further short-term swings in these core holdings, while lower odds on higher brackets acknowledge limited near-term catalysts before August 31. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital assessments of these tech and regulatory dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions