The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Marco Rubio 46%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 45%
J.D. Vance 44%
Glenn Youngkin 43%
Marco Rubio
46%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
45%
J.D. Vance
44%
Glenn Youngkin
43%
Ted Cruz
43%
Vivek Ramaswamy
32%
Donald Trump Jr.
31%
Rand Paul
31%
Ron DeSantis
25%
Donald Trump
5%
Marco Rubio 46%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 45%
J.D. Vance 44%
Glenn Youngkin 43%
Marco Rubio
46%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
45%
J.D. Vance
44%
Glenn Youngkin
43%
Ted Cruz
43%
Vivek Ramaswamy
32%
Donald Trump Jr.
31%
Rand Paul
31%
Ron DeSantis
25%
Donald Trump
5%
The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間: Jul 21, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.
If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The market for the first Republican announcement in the 2028 cycle remains tightly clustered because no major contender has launched an exploratory committee or formal bid yet, leaving traders with limited signals on timing. Multiple figures including J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, and others continue positioning through public appearances and policy statements without committing, while polling averages show Vance ahead for the eventual nomination but no corresponding edge on announcement order. This dynamic sustains near-even implied probabilities across listed options and "Other," reflecting uncertainty over who will move first amid standard post-midterm positioning patterns. Future separation could emerge from Senate schedules, book tours, or state-level events that prompt an early filing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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