Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. The open seat following Dan Newhouse’s retirement drew a crowded August 4 top-two primary, where Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney secured the top spot with about 35% amid a split GOP field, advancing alongside the lone Democrat, John Duresky, at roughly 30%. Multiple independent ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voter registration patterns, central Washington geography spanning Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and historical results. These structural advantages underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$50,609 交易量
$50,609 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
91%
民主黨
8%
$50,609 交易量
$50,609 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$27,999 交易量
91%
民主黨
$22,611 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. The open seat following Dan Newhouse’s retirement drew a crowded August 4 top-two primary, where Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney secured the top spot with about 35% amid a split GOP field, advancing alongside the lone Democrat, John Duresky, at roughly 30%. Multiple independent ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voter registration patterns, central Washington geography spanning Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and historical results. These structural advantages underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$50,609結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. The open seat following Dan Newhouse’s retirement drew a crowded August 4 top-two primary, where Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney secured the top spot with about 35% amid a split GOP field, advancing alongside the lone Democrat, John Duresky, at roughly 30%. Multiple independent ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voter registration patterns, central Washington geography spanning Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and historical results. These structural advantages underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$50,609結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voting Index and Donald Trump’s 14.5-point margin there in 2024. The open seat following Dan Newhouse’s retirement drew a crowded August 4 top-two primary, where Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney secured the top spot with about 35% amid a split GOP field, advancing alongside the lone Democrat, John Duresky, at roughly 30%. Multiple independent ratings classify the race as Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district’s voter registration patterns, central Washington geography spanning Yakima and the Tri-Cities, and historical results. These structural advantages underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee in the November 3 general election. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions