Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Željka Cvijanović 87%
馬林科·博佐維奇 5.7%
Siniša Karan 3.7%
Nebojša Vukanović 1.8%
$32,076 交易量
$32,076 交易量
2026-10-03
Željka Cvijanović
87%
馬林科·博佐維奇
6%
Siniša Karan
4%
Nebojša Vukanović
2%
Branko Blanuša
2%
Draško Stanivuković
1%
Željka Cvijanović 87%
馬林科·博佐維奇 5.7%
Siniša Karan 3.7%
Nebojša Vukanović 1.8%
$32,076 交易量
$32,076 交易量
2026-10-03
Željka Cvijanović
$27,074 交易量
87%
馬林科·博佐維奇
$300 交易量
6%
Siniša Karan
$1,410 交易量
4%
Nebojša Vukanović
$1,286 交易量
2%
Branko Blanuša
$1,068 交易量
2%
Draško Stanivuković
$939 交易量
1%
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$32,076結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
The Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina is a three-member collective head of state, consisting of one Bosniak member, one Croat member, and one Serb member. The Bosniak and Croat members are elected from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, while the Serb member is elected from Republika Srpska. General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed individual elected to serve as the Serb member of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a result of this election.
Interim, temporary, or caretaker Presidency members will not count.
If no such Presidency member has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$32,076結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Željka Cvijanović holds an 87% implied probability as the leading candidate for the Serb seat on Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency in the October 4, 2026 general election, reflecting SNSD party dominance in Republika Srpska and her incumbency since 2022. The ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats secured her nomination amid ongoing entity-level influence, while opposition efforts to consolidate behind figures such as Marinko Božović of the SDS and Nebojša Vukanović produced only fragmented support. Recent certification of candidate lists by the Central Election Commission confirmed the field, with no major shifts from snap RS presidential voting or coalition realignments altering the balance. Traders assign single-digit odds to challengers due to SNSD’s organizational edge and historical voting patterns in entity-wide contests.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions