Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$31,263 交易量
$31,263 交易量
2027-01-29
是
$31,263 交易量
$31,263 交易量
2027-01-29
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
交易量
$31,263結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
交易量
$31,263結束日期
2027-01-29市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 87.1% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1 2026—revised from an initial 2.0% estimate but still well above the prior quarter’s 0.5% pace—driven by rebounds in consumer spending, private investment, exports, and government outlays. Major forecasters, including the CBO at 2.2%, the Philadelphia Fed survey at 2.5%, and Deloitte at 2.2%, project full-year growth near or above 2%, reflecting resilient labor markets with unemployment around 4.5%, ongoing AI-related capital spending, and fiscal support from prior tax measures. While tariffs and elevated energy prices pose downside risks, none of the latest institutional outlooks anticipate contraction, keeping recession probabilities low per New York Fed models. The final Q1 GDP release on June 25 and Q2 data will serve as near-term catalysts for trader sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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