Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather, aligned with recent observational data and seasonal baselines, show Warsaw's overnight minimum stabilizing near 13°C on August 23 under typical late-summer conditions of moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limit radiational cooling. This consensus drives the market's overwhelming 97% implied probability for a 13°C low, consistent with August climatology where average nighttime minima hover around 12–13°C. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected clear skies accelerating heat loss toward 11–12°C or increased cloudiness and advection of milder air pushing the minimum to 14°C or higher; updated model runs or rapid synoptic changes near resolution could still alter the final reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月23日華沙的最低溫度？
8月23日華沙的最低溫度？
13°C 97%
11°C 6%
12°C 3%
9°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
6%
12°C
3%
13°C
97%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
13°C 97%
11°C 6%
12°C 3%
9°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-23
8°C or below
$342 交易量
<1%
9°C
$196 交易量
1%
10°C
$238 交易量
<1%
11°C
$89 交易量
6%
12°C
$92 交易量
3%
13°C
$467 交易量
97%
14°C
$473 交易量
<1%
15°C
$164 交易量
<1%
16°C
$540 交易量
<1%
17°C
$145 交易量
<1%
18°C or higher
$184 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather, aligned with recent observational data and seasonal baselines, show Warsaw's overnight minimum stabilizing near 13°C on August 23 under typical late-summer conditions of moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limit radiational cooling. This consensus drives the market's overwhelming 97% implied probability for a 13°C low, consistent with August climatology where average nighttime minima hover around 12–13°C. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected clear skies accelerating heat loss toward 11–12°C or increased cloudiness and advection of milder air pushing the minimum to 14°C or higher; updated model runs or rapid synoptic changes near resolution could still alter the final reading.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,930結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather, aligned with recent observational data and seasonal baselines, show Warsaw's overnight minimum stabilizing near 13°C on August 23 under typical late-summer conditions of moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limit radiational cooling. This consensus drives the market's overwhelming 97% implied probability for a 13°C low, consistent with August climatology where average nighttime minima hover around 12–13°C. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected clear skies accelerating heat loss toward 11–12°C or increased cloudiness and advection of milder air pushing the minimum to 14°C or higher; updated model runs or rapid synoptic changes near resolution could still alter the final reading.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,930結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather, aligned with recent observational data and seasonal baselines, show Warsaw's overnight minimum stabilizing near 13°C on August 23 under typical late-summer conditions of moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limit radiational cooling. This consensus drives the market's overwhelming 97% implied probability for a 13°C low, consistent with August climatology where average nighttime minima hover around 12–13°C. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include stronger-than-expected clear skies accelerating heat loss toward 11–12°C or increased cloudiness and advection of milder air pushing the minimum to 14°C or higher; updated model runs or rapid synoptic changes near resolution could still alter the final reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions