Japan's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion between 0% and 1.6% annualized, as markets price in a slowdown from Q2's finalized 1.4% pace after Q1's 1.8%. Primary drivers include resilient domestic demand supported by rising real wages and government energy subsidies, alongside positive net export contributions from a weaker yen and AI-related demand. However, elevated import prices tied to Middle East tensions, flat private consumption, and softer capital spending weigh on momentum. The Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hikes, with markets implying further tightening near term, add to the cautious outlook, while consensus forecasts from sources like Trading Economics point to around 0.6% for the quarter. These factors create competitive odds between the two leading bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether growth holds near 1% or dips closer to flat amid policy and external headwinds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.8%–1.6% 30%
0.0%–0.8% 25.8%
-0.8%–0.0% 17%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$26,478 交易量
$26,478 交易量
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
17%
0.0%–0.8%
26%
0.8%–1.6%
30%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 30%
0.0%–0.8% 25.8%
-0.8%–0.0% 17%
2.4%–3.2% 6.3%
$26,478 交易量
$26,478 交易量
2026-11-15
<-2.4%
$594 交易量
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,748 交易量
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 交易量
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,447 交易量
17%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,198 交易量
26%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,384 交易量
30%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 交易量
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,348 交易量
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,234 交易量
3%
4.0%+
$561 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion between 0% and 1.6% annualized, as markets price in a slowdown from Q2's finalized 1.4% pace after Q1's 1.8%. Primary drivers include resilient domestic demand supported by rising real wages and government energy subsidies, alongside positive net export contributions from a weaker yen and AI-related demand. However, elevated import prices tied to Middle East tensions, flat private consumption, and softer capital spending weigh on momentum. The Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hikes, with markets implying further tightening near term, add to the cautious outlook, while consensus forecasts from sources like Trading Economics point to around 0.6% for the quarter. These factors create competitive odds between the two leading bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether growth holds near 1% or dips closer to flat amid policy and external headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
交易量
$26,478結束日期
2026-11-16市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETThis market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion between 0% and 1.6% annualized, as markets price in a slowdown from Q2's finalized 1.4% pace after Q1's 1.8%. Primary drivers include resilient domestic demand supported by rising real wages and government energy subsidies, alongside positive net export contributions from a weaker yen and AI-related demand. However, elevated import prices tied to Middle East tensions, flat private consumption, and softer capital spending weigh on momentum. The Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hikes, with markets implying further tightening near term, add to the cautious outlook, while consensus forecasts from sources like Trading Economics point to around 0.6% for the quarter. These factors create competitive odds between the two leading bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether growth holds near 1% or dips closer to flat amid policy and external headwinds.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$26,478結束日期
2026-11-16市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETJapan's Q3 2026 GDP growth expectations center on modest expansion between 0% and 1.6% annualized, as markets price in a slowdown from Q2's finalized 1.4% pace after Q1's 1.8%. Primary drivers include resilient domestic demand supported by rising real wages and government energy subsidies, alongside positive net export contributions from a weaker yen and AI-related demand. However, elevated import prices tied to Middle East tensions, flat private consumption, and softer capital spending weigh on momentum. The Bank of Japan's anticipated rate hikes, with markets implying further tightening near term, add to the cautious outlook, while consensus forecasts from sources like Trading Economics point to around 0.6% for the quarter. These factors create competitive odds between the two leading bins, reflecting uncertainty over whether growth holds near 1% or dips closer to flat amid policy and external headwinds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions