Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and halting active enrichment activities. IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access to these facilities since the attacks, preventing verification of material status or centrifuge operations, while an interim U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in June 2026 calls for maintaining the nuclear status quo and eventual down-blending under IAEA supervision during follow-on talks. Iranian officials have reaffirmed non-weaponization commitments amid stalled negotiations over sanctions relief and Hormuz access, and intelligence assessments indicate no near-term breakout capability despite some reported relocation of equipment to deeper sites. These developments underpin trader consensus that a completed nuclear device remains unlikely before 2027.