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icon for 2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？

2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？

icon for 2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？

2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？

4-6 41%

1-3 40%

7+ 14%

0 7%

Polymarket
最新

4-6 41%

1-3 40%

7+ 14%

0 7%

Polymarket
最新

0

$79 交易量

7%

1-3

$91 交易量

40%

4-6

$316 交易量

36%

7+

$98 交易量

14%

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
交易量
$584
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Persistent El Niño conditions and suppressed early-season activity continue to anchor trader expectations for a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. As of early August, only two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) have formed, with zero hurricanes, consistent with NOAA’s August 6 update projecting 2-6 hurricanes and Colorado State University’s 4-hurricane forecast. These outlooks incorporate reduced vertical wind shear and atmospheric stability tied to the ongoing El Niño, though September’s climatological peak leaves room for late intensification if steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures shift. The tight spread between 1-3 and 4-6 outcomes reflects model consensus on modest totals while acknowledging forecast uncertainty through November.

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.

If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
交易量
$584
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1-3" at 40%, followed by "4-6" at 36%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 28, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？" is "1-3" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4-6" at 36%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年大西洋颶風季節期間會形成多少次颶風？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.