Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for September 12, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and highs near the seasonal average of 31°C. This setup favors market-implied probabilities clustering around 30–32°C, as widespread cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while high humidity and light variable winds moderate extremes. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak values, though exact timing of any showers could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the region support elevated moisture but do not currently favor rapid intensification or clear-sky scenarios that would push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA briefings and final observational data on the 12th will determine resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月12日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
9月12日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
31°C 27%
32°C 26%
30°C 21%
33°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
25°C或以下
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
5%
29°C
7%
30°C
21%
31°C
27%
32°C
26%
33°C
15%
34°C
9%
35°C或以上
2%
31°C 27%
32°C 26%
30°C 21%
33°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
25°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
26°C
$0 交易量
2%
27°C
$101 交易量
3%
28°C
$58 交易量
5%
29°C
$7 交易量
7%
30°C
$9 交易量
21%
31°C
$0 交易量
27%
32°C
$0 交易量
26%
33°C
$0 交易量
15%
34°C
$0 交易量
9%
35°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for September 12, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and highs near the seasonal average of 31°C. This setup favors market-implied probabilities clustering around 30–32°C, as widespread cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while high humidity and light variable winds moderate extremes. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak values, though exact timing of any showers could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the region support elevated moisture but do not currently favor rapid intensification or clear-sky scenarios that would push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA briefings and final observational data on the 12th will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 10, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
交易量
$175結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:59 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for September 12, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and highs near the seasonal average of 31°C. This setup favors market-implied probabilities clustering around 30–32°C, as widespread cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while high humidity and light variable winds moderate extremes. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak values, though exact timing of any showers could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the region support elevated moisture but do not currently favor rapid intensification or clear-sky scenarios that would push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA briefings and final observational data on the 12th will determine resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$175結束日期
2026-09-12市場開放時間
Sep 10, 2026, 12:59 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for September 12, with official PAGASA guidance and multiple forecast models indicating cloudy skies, scattered thunderstorms, and highs near the seasonal average of 31°C. This setup favors market-implied probabilities clustering around 30–32°C, as widespread cloud cover and precipitation limit solar heating while high humidity and light variable winds moderate extremes. Model consensus shows limited disagreement on peak values, though exact timing of any showers could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Warmer sea surface temperatures in the region support elevated moisture but do not currently favor rapid intensification or clear-sky scenarios that would push readings to 33°C or higher. Updated PAGASA briefings and final observational data on the 12th will determine resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions